Tim Kaine: ‘Not That Optimistic’ About Debt Ceiling Bill
Senator agrees with Prof. Holmes on face-to-face, says he thinks ‘debt ceiling fiasco’ unlikely to happen after GRI visit
Following his visit to the College of William & Mary’s Global Research Institute on Friday, March 4, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., the 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee, spoke on his views on the future of his bill, the Protect Our Citizens from Reckless Extortion of our Debt and Irresponsible Tactics Act of 2023.
He is co-sponsoring the legislation with Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ma., Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Ca., and Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.
“This legislation would put the power to prevent default in the hands of the president, with Congress acting as a check,” Merkley and Kaine wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. “In other words — just as [Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.,] proposed … Congress could only stop the president from raising the debt ceiling if a veto-proof two-thirds majority of lawmakers agreed it was the right thing to do.”
Following a discussion with GRI students on foreign policy that lasted about an hour, Kaine gave insights on the debt ceiling legislation, also known as the Protect Our Credit Act of 2023.
“I'm not that optimistic about my bill. It's a perfectly reasonable solution,” Kaine told me. “But it requires enough members, and I might have them in the Senate — but I probably don't have them right now in the House — enough members who are willing to say, ‘Yeah, we should never use the debt ceiling as leverage.’’
However, he offers a less grim prognostication of defaulting prospects.
“The good news is I don't think we're going to have a debt ceiling fiasco,” Kaine added, “because when you have both Speaker McCarthy and Mitch McConnell saying, ‘Don't worry, we're not defaulting,’ I think they're good on that. They recognize that there are both real world consequences, but political consequences would be unacceptable.”
Kaine is, however, more worried about the federal budget.
“Where the real challenge is, it’s going to be in the budget, because the House, they want to cut spending,” Kaine said. “And what President Biden has said to them was, ‘Great, you write your own budget, put it on the table. The Senate will write a budget, we’ll put it on the table.’ I think it's really questionable right now whether the House can even pass their own budget.”
Kaine pointed to efforts among some Republican members of Congress to cut spending.
“If they write a budget that's really cutting spending and they only have a three or four seat majority, what they're cutting, there's going to be some members of the Republican caucus [that are] like, ‘I don't think we should cut that.’”
Kaine further alluded to the possibility of a continuing resolution. Such an act allows federal operations to function on a temporary basis.
“I don't think it will affect the debt ceiling, but it could mean that we … could roll into a continuing resolution rather than a real budget,” Kaine said, “and that's going to be very damaging to a lot of priorities because it's like driving by, looking in the rearview mirror. You're doing just what I did yesterday, rather than looking in the windshield and saying, ‘I'm seeing what the challenges are ahead and budgeting to those.’”
As the visit centered around foreign affairs discussions, Kaine also spoke on his thoughts on face-to-face diplomacy, a subject promoted by the GRI’s Associate Professor of Government Marcus Holmes.
"Completely, completely,” Kaine said when asked if he agreed that face-to-face diplomacy is preferable. “What you get with face-to-face — in my first meeting with you face-to-face, versus a first meeting by Zoom or text, we might accomplish the same thing. But in my second meeting, I would do a lot better with you if we'd had one face-to-face.”
He added that a face-to-face meeting creates the ability to get to know the other party in a discussion on a more personal level.
“Okay, I understand, when it's bluster, when it's real. I understand what the person's likes and dislikes are,” Kaine said. “It's one of the reasons why Biden is pretty successful at this, because, I mean, 36 years [on] Senate Foreign Relations. Eight years as vice president, he now has a kind of an understanding of not just individual leaders, but even kind of the culture that they come from.”
Kaine said such a process cannot be sufficiently replaced via other means.
“So I love being able to do telework,” Kaine said. “It's nice to, you know, do stuff and have Zooms and not have to spend a lot of time on planes. But there is some degree to which in diplomacy in particular, there's no substitute for doing it in person.”
Holmes reacted to Kaine’s comments on Twitter.
“I am glad to hear it,” he wrote.
Disclosure: I took Prof. Holmes’ international politics class during the fall 2022 semester